Update: The June deliveries are published, revealing Nio sold 10,707 units.

Nio will publish its June monthly sales report on Saturday, July 1. Usually, it is around 6 pm China time, and as always, we bring you our delivery estimate data. The forecast is calculated based on weekly insurance numbers and our discussions with Nio Space staff&friends in China.

As for the May sales, 6155 EVs were delivered, CNC estimate was 6,200 cars, meaning the error rate is 0.73%. For Nio, it was the third month of continuous decline. However, June is different. The new generation of ES6 SUV was launched on May 24 – the car’s previous generation was responsible for 40% of all cumulative Nio sales since they started deliveries in 2018.

And an even more critical milestone happened on June 12. Despite the company’s CEO, William Li stating otherwise and assuring Nio would not join the price war, Nio joined the price war. Hefei-based EV maker lowered the cost of every single model by 30,000 yuan (4,200 USD), including the newly launched ES6.

That resulted in 80% more store visits in the following week. Moreover, on June 15, the ET5 Touring – station wagon version of the ET5 sedan was launched, and deliveries started on June 16. As we already learned in the ES6 case, it takes about two weeks from the official delivery date before it affects the actual numbers.

So let’s have a look at the June numbers. What we know for sure is that 6,700 Nio vehicles were registered between June 5 – June 25. Based on our estimate, Nio sold 950 cars between June 1 – June 4. That is 7,650.

The biggest mystery is now June 26 – June 30. We can see a sharp trend in the previous week as Nio jumped from 2,000 cars in week 24 (W24) to 3,200 in week 25 (W25). That is for sure the result of price cuts. So the biggest question is if the trend will persist into week 26.

We contacted our friends at Nio Spaces and asked a few simple questions, one of them being: Compared with the previous week (W25), do you feel store visits are less – same or more? 86% answered more. Based on some additional data, we assume 4,750 cars in week 26. Thus CarNewsChina’s forecast for June is 11,042 delivered units; we round it to 11k.